UN planetary teams monitor asteroid with ‘tiny risk’

International

A UN planetary defense initiative is closely monitoring an asteroid, 2024 YR4, which poses a tiny risk of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.

The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates a 99% chance that the asteroid will safely pass by, but the possibility of a collision, though small, cannot be entirely ruled out.

Current calculations suggest a 1.3% probability of impact.

In a report by BBC, Dr. Robert Massey from the Royal Astronomical Society emphasized there is no cause for alarm, noting that similar situations have seen risk estimates fall as further observations refine the data.

He stressed the importance of continued vigilance and adequate resources for astronomers to track potential threats.

Discovered on December 27, 2024, YR4 is estimated to be between 40 to 90 meters wide, potentially causing significant damage if it were to strike a populated area.

However, experts believe the asteroid is more likely to land in the ocean or a remote location.

While the asteroid’s trajectory remains uncertain, astronomers are using telescopes to refine its path.

Currently, YR4 is rated a 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a measure of potential danger. A collision is only considered certain if the scale reaches 8 or above.

Historically, initial predictions of asteroid impacts have been proven incorrect after further observations, such as in the case of asteroid Apophis in 2004, which was later cleared of any significant risk.

If the asteroid's chance of impact remains over 1%, precautionary measures will be activated.

These include the involvement of two UN-backed asteroid reaction groups, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), which is currently assessing next steps.

In the unlikely event of a direct hit, a possible response would involve diverting the asteroid using a robotic spacecraft, a method tested successfully by NASA’s Dart mission in 2022.(CMM)