Chance of asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 increases

International

ASTRONOMERS have raised the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, with a 2.2% chance, up from 1.2% last week.

The increase follows new observations, though experts expect the risk to fluctuate as more data is gathered.

The European Space Agency (ESA) has pointed out that asteroid risk assessments tend to evolve as astronomers refine their measurements.

2024 YR4, estimated to be between 131 and 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, could cause significant damage if it strikes, potentially affecting areas within a 50-kilometer radius.

However, scientists emphasize that the likelihood of impact is low, with most near-Earth asteroids eventually being ruled out as threats.

The asteroid’s trajectory is currently uncertain, and further observations will help confirm whether it poses a real danger.

This asteroid was first spotted on December 27 by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. Following an alert, it quickly entered ESA and NASA's risk lists.

Since then, astronomers have been using various telescopes to track its movement.

The asteroid is currently over 28 million miles away and is moving farther from Earth.

Observations are expected to continue until early April, after which it will become harder to track as it fades from view.

If not fully ruled out by then, 2024 YR4 will remain on the risk list until it returns in 2028.

In response to the threat, international asteroid response groups are monitoring the asteroid.

While the possibility of deflection or evacuation is still premature, the priority is to refine predictions to determine the asteroid's true risk.(CMM)