11-19 typhoons to hit PH in 2nd half of the year

National

Expect more typhoons to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the final six months of the year.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) projected between 11 and 19 tropical cyclones to enter or develop within the PAR from July to December 2025.

This figure is consistent with the country's historical average of 19-20 storms annually, with roughly half typically making landfall.

The state weather bureau forecasts a consistent presence of cyclones in the coming months. Both July and August are expected to experience two to three cyclones each.

September and October are projected to be the busiest months for tropical cyclone activity, with two to four cyclones anticipated for each.

As the year draws to a close, November is expected to see another two to three cyclones, while December is predicted to conclude with one or two.

In a report by ABS-CBN, Pagasa climatologist Joey Figuracion underscored that these cyclones, especially those from July through early October, have a higher probability of making landfall.

Furthermore, their presence can intensify the "Habagat" or southwest monsoon, often leading to heavier and more widespread rainfall across affected areas, particularly in western Luzon and parts of Visayas.

Tropical cyclones can account for at least 30% of the annual rainfall in the northern Philippines.

This year's cyclone season began unusually late. Tropical Depression Auring, the first recorded system for 2025, only formed in mid-June and had a brief six-hour existence on June 12-13 before dissipating outside PAR.

This marked a rare delayed onset, as the first storm typically emerges in January; the last similar June formation was Tropical Depression Ambo in 2016.

Regarding rainfall, most of the Philippines can expect near to above-normal precipitation for the remainder of 2025, particularly from October to December.

While July to September will likely see near-normal rainfall, northwestern Luzon might face drier conditions in July.

Pagasa reminds the public that even a "normal" rainy season carries significant risks of flooding and landslides, urging continued vigilance.(Angela Sarabosing, CNU Comm Intern)