‘Very Strong El Niño’ threatens Cebu

Local

CEBU is bracing for a drier period as the ongoing “Strong El Niño” is expected to intensify into a “Very Strong El Niño” by the end of 2026 and persist through the first half of 2027.

This is according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

Pagasa weather specialist Jhomer Eclarino said the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean has reached 2.1 degrees Celsius, which led the agency to classify the current phenomenon as a Strong El Niño in September.

“And naa tay forecast base sa atong mga experts and climatologists na at the end of this year 2026, moabot pa kini sa very strong category,” Eclarino said during a forum earlier this week.

He said the phenomenon is expected to continue through the first half of 2027, with expected impacts on local rainfall and water supply.

For Central Visayas, the effects are already reflected in recent rainfall figures.

Eclarino said the region recorded an 89% reduction in rainfall last month, while September rainfall was 52% below normal.

“October, below normal to near normal atong expected here in Central Visayas,” he said.

Eclarino, however, clarified that El Niño does not mean the complete absence of rain.

Central Visayas may still experience rainfall and thunderstorms, particularly those associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and localized thunderstorms. The broader outlook, however, points to reduced rainfall as the El Niño strengthens.

Pagasa earlier warned that the Strong El Niño is expected to intensify into a Very Strong El Niño between September and December 2026 and could persist through the first half of 2027.

The developing conditions have also prompted the Metropolitan Cebu Water District (MCWD) to prepare for possible effects on Metro Cebu's water supply.

MCWD General Manager John DX Lapid said the agency has been receiving monthly briefings from Pagasa since April and has already started preparations.

“Since April, we are being briefed by Pagasa monthly, every month. Naka-preparar na kami, nakatanggandang kami sa epekto sa El Niño,” Lapid said.

MCWD is installing booster stations and rehabilitating groundwater sources, including deep wells. It is also coordinating with bulk suppliers for additional desalinated water and expects additional supply from Carmen by November.

Lapid said southern Metro Cebu is expected to be the most affected area because surface-water sources are more vulnerable to prolonged dry conditions.

“The most affected sub-kind of supply sa mga water districts is ang surface water,” he said.

The Jaclupan facility, which draws from the Mananga River, is expected to be affected, while the Cotcot River supply in Compostela could reach zero. MCWD also anticipates a reduction in the volume it receives from Lusaran.

To manage possible supply shortages, MCWD is conducting hydraulic runs to determine how available water can be redistributed through its network.

Lapid said some areas may eventually require water rationing, although the schedules and affected areas are still being worked out.

“Definitely naa gyud tay areas nga mag-schedule kita og... rationing. Mag-rationing ta sa water,” Lapid said.

The agency is also preparing booster stations that could allow water to be moved between Metro Cebu's northern, central and southern areas depending on where additional supply is needed.

Lapid said the MCWD El Niño Committee will hold weekly meetings as the agency prepares for the expected worsening of the phenomenon by November.(TGP)